Over the next few weeks the Team here at USN will release player profiles to help you get ready for your rookie draft. As the QB scout at USN, it’s only natural that I should profile them for dynasty as well. Some things we’ll look at are: Competition, projected playing time, skillset, weapons, scheme fit and then we’ll try to project 2021 stats as well as future outlook.
Competition and projected playing time
Lawrence is the safest bet of all rookie QB’s to start week one and as such all seventeen weeks barring injury. The only real competition is former starter Gardner Minshew, who was benched last year for Mike Glennon, so it’s safe to say this won’t be much of a competition.
Jacksonville will be coached by NCAA legend and first time NFL head coach Urban Meyer, and as such there is currently a TON of unknown scheme-wise. What we do know is that Lawrence play in a system built around his strengths as Meyer had coached in a number of systems that got the most of it’s signal callers. Alex Smith, Tim Tebow and Dwayne Haskins are wildly different players, all succeeded under Meyer.
The Drafting of Star Running Back and Lawrence Teammate Travis Etienne to pair with 2020 undrafted rookie turned superstar James Robinson suggests this will be a run heavy system designed to take pressure off of Lawrence early in his career.
Skillset and Scouting Report
Lawrence is a dynamic passer of the football who excels at pushing the ball down the field. He’s also more than mobile enough to make an impact as a runner as well. Lawrence graded out as my highest graded QB prospect since 2006 and in the same rarified air as Peyton Manning, John Elway and Andrew Luck.
For a team drafting first overall the Jaguars actually have a lot for Trevor Lawrence to work with. The offensive line is a work in progress as they finished as the 22nd overall grade by Pro Football focus, but you could do ALOT worse than the Jags collection of talent at the their skill positions.
- DJ Chark: 6-4 with 4.3 speed and a 1,000 yard season on his resume
- Laviska Shennault: Dynamic second-year player projected for a big leap
- Marvin Jones: Veteran deep threat with nearly 1,000 yards in 2020
- James Robinson: 2020 UDFA with over 1,400 total yards as a rookie
- Travis Etienne: Lawrence’s college teammate and most explosive runner/ receiver since Dalvin Cook.
We can work with that, and importantly so can Lawrence.
2021 Projections and Future outlook
It seems almost silly to draft anyone other than Lawrence as the 1.01(first overall pick)in super flex rookie drafts, when you consider his combination of talent, weapons, opportunity and the likelihood that a bad team means he may need to throw a lot.
In our study Prospect to Fantasy star we discovered that mobility is almost a requirement for early career fantasy production and Lawrence is more than mobile enough to succeed on Sunday’s. His plus 73 touchdown to interception differential clears the other trend from that study as well, and that’s that college QBs with Turnover problems tend to be fantasy busts (See: Danrold, Sam).
But there is some cause for concern on the turnover front…. If you remember the super-elite prospects that Lawrence was often compared to, they all have one thing in common: Turnover prone rookie seasons
- Andrew Luck: 18 interceptions as a rookie
- Peyton Manning: 28 interceptions as a rookie (record)
- John Elway: twice as many interceptions (14) as touchdowns (7)
You see some warning signs on tape as well as Lawrence does seem to test what throws he can and can’t get away with at times. All three of those QBs broke that trend after their rookie seasons and I except Lawrence to be just fine in this area as well. My official predictions are as follows
- 2021 Stat line: 3900 Pass Yards, 28 Pass Touchdowns, 17 Interceptions, 300 Rush Yards 5 Rush Touchdowns
- Superflex rookie rank: 1
- Non-SF Rookie Rank: 8