This is my favorite article to write for fantasy each year and it has consistently been one of the cornerstones of my yearly fantasy content creation. You can check out last year’s article here, but if you don’t have time for old news then just note I was there to tell you targets some kids named Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, and Kyler Murray and …… (Whispers) Cam Newton…. so I wasn’t perfect… but hey I took my own advice and drafted Lamar Jackson and well that went about how you might expect.
Before we get to this year’s list, remember that my QB targets will always be based on production vs ADP, so while a guy like Prescott may have been a prime candidate for this list the last two seasons, his current ADP as QB3 disqualifies him this season. But enough with the formalities, here’s the five value QB’s I will be targeting in this year’s draft.
5) Teddy Bridgewater, Carolina Panthers
- Current ADP: 183rd (QB26)
- Strength of Schedule: 2nd
Those of you that read last year’s article, probably already know that I look for QB’s that are being drafted very late in drafts that have a history of performing well, the ability to run the ball at a high level, or a host of talented weapons. In Teddy’s case he enters the season with DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, Curtis Samuel, and Christian McCaffrey. When you combine that level of talent and speed on the field with the 2nd easiest schedule, what you get is someone that is much more likely to finish between QB7-QB15 rather than his current QB26 ECR.
4) Phillip Rivers
- Current ADP: 148 (QB22)
- Strength of schedule: 11th
Here’s the deal, Rivers is washed, he cannot handle pressure…like at all… but if we let him play with a clean jersey all day he is still more than accurate and intelligent enough to carve up opposing defenses. He’s now behind the league’s most dominant offensive line.
3) Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
- Current ADP: 106 (QB14)
- Strength of schedule: 4th
This one will be short (Not a joke about Mayfield’s height), Mayfield cannot possibly play worse this year than last. With that out of the way, I’ll be using math to defend Mayfield’s placement on this list. Improved coaching + Landry + OBJ + Chubb + Hunt + Njoku + Hooper + Improved blocking + the 4th easiest schedule = a top 8 fantasy football finish.
2) Jimmy Garappolo
- Current ADP: 135 (QB20)
- Strength of schedule: 10th
The man known as ” Jimmy G” or Jimmy GQ” is someone that I often argue is overrated in real life, but real life and fantasy are not mutually exclusive and as it turns out Garappolo is a good bit underrated in fantasy. While the injury to Deebo Samuel hurts, the wizard robot from the future name Kyle Shannahan is easily a top 3 offensive mind. While he has absolutely no shot at finishing as a top 5 QB, he will almost certainly finish between QB 10-15 and that’s fantastic value at 135.
1) Drew Lock
- Current ADP: 154 (QB24)
- Strength of Schedule: 27th
There is a bit of risk to this given strength of schedule, and the relative of youth of both Lock and his pass catchers; but there is no greater lottery ticket this year at the QB position than Lock. The Broncos already had conerstones of thier pass catching core in Cortland Sutton and Noah Fant, but then they add a pair of dynamic young WR’s in the draft this year headlined by my top WR prospect of the last few years in Jerry Jeudy. Lock for his part showed flashes of high quality QB play in his limited playing time last season as well as the ability to add value with his legs. With a current ECR at QB24, its time to get as many shares of Drew Lock before everyone else jumps on the hype train.